The Guru Posted March 27, 2020 Report Share Posted March 27, 2020 1 minute ago, concha said: So, Andy, your argument is that unemployment that had moved 0.0 in the final three months under Obama, just 0.2% in the final 12 months and just 0.1% in the four months before that under Obama would have achieved a 30% drop in the subsequent four years. It went down 30% in the previous 37 months. It would only have had to decrease by 25% to reach the unemployment rate of February 2020. That's totally in-line with what the trend was. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Guru Posted March 27, 2020 Report Share Posted March 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, concha said: So, Andy, your argument is that unemployment that had moved 0.0 in the final three months under Obama, just 0.2% in the final 12 months and just 0.1% in the four months before that under Obama would have achieved a 30% drop in the subsequent four years. And even ignoring your bungled numbers.......the economy actually did just that. It stayed almost perfectly in-line with the trend. Down 32% from 2009-2013 Down 30% from 2013-2017 Down 25% from 2017-2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted March 27, 2020 Report Share Posted March 27, 2020 Just now, The Guru said: The unemployment rate went down 30% from December 2013 to January 2017. That's the last 3 years and one month of Obama's term. If the same rate of decline continued for 3 years and one month of Trump's Presidency, the unemployment rate would've been 3.3% The unemployment rate in February of 2020 was? 3.5% 😄 Yet, concha claims that he's being charitable when he says that it would've taken 6 years for Obama's economy to get to 3.5% unemployment. 🤡 Andy, you're just looking silly here. Show some dignity. That rate of decline that was handed to Trump wasn't the rate of decline from 2013, or 2014 or 2015... This level of intellectual dishonesty from you is "BREATHTAKING", Andy. 🤣 This is just hilarious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted March 27, 2020 Report Share Posted March 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, The Guru said: It went down 30% in the previous 37 months. It would only have had to decrease by 25% to reach the unemployment rate of February 2020. That's totally in-line with what the trend was. This has already been proven to be stupid, Andy. Where was the "trend" in 2016, Andy? You know, when the Obama unemployment rate hardly moved at all? What happened? 🤣 🤣 🤣 Too easy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Guru Posted March 27, 2020 Report Share Posted March 27, 2020 1 minute ago, concha said: That rate of decline that was handed to Trump wasn't the rate of decline from 2013, or 2014 or 2015... This is you cherry-picking and using misleading sample sizes. I could easily say that it dropped from 5.0% to 4.7% from September to January. You're being dishonest again by using wobbles and small sample sizes. It stayed almost perfectly in-line with the trend. Down 32% from 2009-2013 Down 30% from 2013-2017 Down 25% from 2017-2020 The unemployment did, indeed, keep going down with the trend. No amount of your lying can explain the numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Guru Posted March 27, 2020 Report Share Posted March 27, 2020 1 minute ago, concha said: This has already been proven to be stupid Where was the "trend" in 2016, Andy? You're being dishonest, again, as usual. The rate of decline before (2009-2013), the rate of decline during (2013-2017) and the rate of decline after (2017-present) are all perfectly in-line. It just kept going down. The numbers don't care which President concha likes. They just continue doing what they're doing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Guru Posted March 27, 2020 Report Share Posted March 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, concha said: You know, when the Obama unemployment rate hardly moved at all? From October 2017 to February 2018 the unemployment rate stayed at 4.1% No movement at all. Anybody could lie about this and claim that it's statistically relevant if they were as dishonest as you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted March 27, 2020 Report Share Posted March 27, 2020 1 minute ago, The Guru said: This is you cherry-picking and using misleading sample sizes. I could easily say that it dropped from 5.0% to 4.7% from September to January. You're being dishonest again by using wobbles and small sample sizes. It stayed almost perfectly in-line with the trend. Down 32% from 2009-2013 Down 30% from 2013-2017 Down 25% from 2017-2020 The unemployment did, indeed, keep going down with the trend. No amount of your lying can explain the numbers. No, Andy. The decline in unemployment rate handed to Trump was next-to-nothing. That's why you want to run back to years not at all connected to what Trump was given. Why was unemployment hardly changing in the 4-5 quarters before Trump became president Andy? WHY DID THAT CHANGE ONCE TRUMP TOOK OVER, ANDY? Magic? Remember the magic wand Obama joked about? That was FUNNY. 🤣 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Guru Posted March 27, 2020 Report Share Posted March 27, 2020 9 minutes ago, concha said: The decline in unemployment rate handed to Trump was next-to-nothing. That's why you want to run back to years not at all connected to what Trump was given. No. You're who screws around with sample sizes. Trump was given an economy at near full employment and an unemployment rate on the decline. These are just facts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Guru Posted March 27, 2020 Report Share Posted March 27, 2020 Here's another example of concha not understanding trend lines. He was presumably bragging about this happening under Trump.....in March of 2017 after a long 7+ year recovery. On 3/9/2017 at 1:38 PM, concha said: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted March 27, 2020 Report Share Posted March 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, The Guru said: You're being dishonest, again, as usual. The rate of decline before (2009-2013), the rate of decline during (2013-2017) and the rate of decline after (2017-present) are all perfectly in-line. It just kept going down. The numbers don't care which President concha likes. They just continue doing what they're doing. I am stating facts. Trump didn't inherit 2009-2013. Or 2013-2017. He inherited an unemployment situation that had dropped by an average of LESS than 0.1% per quarter for six straight quarters. Over eighteen months the rate went from 5.1% to 4.7%. Under Trump that level of change happened in five months. Not eighteen. Too easy, Andy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Guru Posted March 27, 2020 Report Share Posted March 27, 2020 Just now, concha said: I am stating facts. You're cherry-picking to sell your agenda. Everybody knows this. Honesty is not your strong suit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted March 27, 2020 Report Share Posted March 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, The Guru said: Here's another example of concha not understanding trend lines. He was presumably bragging about this happening under Trump.....in March of 2017 after a long 7+ year recovery. What people notice is the line bouncing around 45 for last two years under Obama and Trump bringing it home. 🤡 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Guru Posted March 27, 2020 Report Share Posted March 27, 2020 Just now, concha said: What people notice is the line bouncing around 45 for last two years under Obama and Trump bringing it home Yeah, people who don't know how to read charts and trends. So you just admitted that what I said is true: you don't understand it. 🤡 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted March 27, 2020 Report Share Posted March 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, The Guru said: You're cherry-picking to sell your agenda. Everybody knows this. Honesty is not your strong suit. I'm using several quarters worth of information that led directly into Trump's presidency. You are dancing around using much older data and trying to tell people that trends just happen on their own, and that the 12-18 months of what actually happened before Trump took office should be ignored (because it exposes you for the dishonest fool you are). You are a clown. And it is a pleasure exposing it. 🤣 🤡 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted March 27, 2020 Report Share Posted March 27, 2020 16 hours ago, The Guru said: Yeah, people who don't know how to read charts and trends. So you just admitted that what I said is true: you don't understand it. 🤡 Oh, I understand what you are doing very well. You are using long periods of time that have nothing to do with the actual situation Trump inherited for a very specific reason: By using extended periods of time the situation that Trump actually had handed to him is hidden. You want to bury the fact that Obama did NOT hand Trump anything close to a vibrant economy. In the 12-18 months prior to Trump entering the WH, unemployment was barely moving. It takes two straight quarters of negative GDP growth to classify as a recession. Obama had six (6!) consecutive quarters where unemployment declines didn't even hit 0.1% per month on average. S-I-X. Down less than half-a-point in 18 months.... But you are so intellectually dishonest you'd have people believe that the magic trend fairy somehow just went on vacation for Obama's 12-18 final months and things would have magically gone down to natural unemployment levels anyway. 🤡 Shall we discuss the 500k manufacturing jobs that have been created under Trump that Obama said were gone forever? 🤡 TOO EASY 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted March 27, 2020 Report Share Posted March 27, 2020 59 minutes ago, The Guru said: Yeah, people who don't know how to read charts and trends. So you just admitted that what I said is true: you don't understand it. 🤡 No. I proved I can read a chart where things don't net advance for two years. TWO YEARS. 🤡 Dumbass. 🤣 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I AM IRONMAN Posted March 27, 2020 Report Share Posted March 27, 2020 Is this pissing match almost over?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Guru Posted March 28, 2020 Report Share Posted March 28, 2020 Here's your "concha being dishonest" update to start your day. Here he is bragging about job numbers that were worse, on average, than Obama's. On 3/9/2018 at 9:28 AM, concha said: Who gives a shit about jobs? More Jobs = Less Likely to Vote Dem BAD....... On 3/9/2018 at 9:29 AM, concha said: Oh, and you forgot to mention how the December and January job numbers were revised up. Trump's first-year jobs record was strong. Just not as strong as Obama's last year Trump wasn't in office yet when the Labor Department collected the data used in January 2017 jobs report, so for the sake of comparison it makes sense to exclude the first month of the year. But in the remaining 11 monthly jobs reports, employers added 1.84 million jobs, according to the December jobs report released Friday. That compares to 2.09 million jobs added in Obama's last 11 months in office. The economy was "tepid" under Obama but "on a tear" under Trump when he made this claim. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted March 28, 2020 Report Share Posted March 28, 2020 Just now, The Guru said: Here's your "concha being dishonest" update to start your day. Here he is bragging about job numbers that were worse, on average, than Obama's. Trump's first-year jobs record was strong. Just not as strong as Obama's last year Trump wasn't in office yet when the Labor Department collected the data used in January 2017 jobs report, so for the sake of comparison it makes sense to exclude the first month of the year. But in the remaining 11 monthly jobs reports, employers added 1.84 million jobs, according to the December jobs report released Friday. That compares to 2.09 million jobs added in Obama's last 11 months in office. The economy was "tepid" under Obama but "on a tear" under Trump when he made this claim. It's the weekend. For fuck's sake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Guru Posted March 28, 2020 Report Share Posted March 28, 2020 1 minute ago, concha said: It's the weekend. For fuck's sake. Your dishonesty doesn't have bounds. Have a nice weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
concha Posted March 28, 2020 Report Share Posted March 28, 2020 CODBEARD has apparently discovered a new favorite website: ReallyFuckingShortGIFs.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
World Citizen Posted March 28, 2020 Report Share Posted March 28, 2020 20 hours ago, 15yds4gibberish said: @World Citizen Economic inequality has been accelerating since right around 1980. My 50,000 foot level take is Obama did indeed inherit an economic disaster, and he turned it around along the conventional economic metrics (really with Mitch blocking him...Turns out Republicans are only Keynesians when a Republican is in office), but Obama did not address the underlying structural issues (ie a significant % of households 1 disaster away from ruin). Trump inherited the Obama economy and it continued to perform about the same using the standard metrics (hence the resurrection of the almost 4 year old debate between Guru and Conch - Paraphrase of which is ~3+ years ago Conch said it was a major failing that Obama never had the economy over 3% GDP growth for a year, first since Hoover, but so far neither has Trump.). The tax cut really led to two basic things, stock buybacks and further exacerbation of economic inequality. Turns out global pandemic hits hard on all the weak points of the modern American economy. I have significant doubts we will emerge the same as before...but that's a different conversation for another thread as this one strayed far afield from where it started. 😉😷 I'm looking forward to that conversation on what will emerge from all this. With the unprecedented times we are in there may be an opportunity to do some things different than we have done in the past. Its above my pay grade on what we should do to make the system more equitable. I really have no idea on how we can make this work where we are all on more solid footing financially. Esp. when our elected have no interest or ability to address the problem. They can't even get out of their own way most times and spend most of the time fundraising. That tax cut was a bad thing no doubt. We will be at a major crossroad in the not too distant future. The way of Greece or ? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I AM IRONMAN Posted March 28, 2020 Report Share Posted March 28, 2020 10 hours ago, CODBEARD said: learnt how to embed yarn... lol... all day cafe allfuckingday.mp4 Ya think? Your obsessed man! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BUFORDGAWOLVES Posted March 28, 2020 Report Share Posted March 28, 2020 On 3/27/2020 at 2:02 PM, CODBEARD said: good enough you guys carry on.. let me know who wins. will ya It's the obligatory go for walk with wife time and she has it in her head she wants to make a garden so I guess a trip to home depot is in order as well.. gotta go buy a hoe Rent a hoe. BGW 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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